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Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as $2,500+ wagers at odds of 35% or less, have a ~52% average win rate, vs. 25% for political bets (Financial Times) from Techmeme RSS feed.
Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as $2,500+ wagers at odds of 35% or less, have a ~52% average win rate, vs. 25% for political bets (Financial Times)
Financial Times:
Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as $2,500+ wagers at odds of 35% or less, have a ~52% average win rate, vs. 25% for political bets — High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets