Polls and forecasts show Democrats favored to win the House and Senate, with possible upsets in red states like Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. The Cook Political Report now projects Democrats on track to pick up as many as 19 House seats — enough for a strong majority and oversight power over President Trump — and the party is pushing to convert that edge into a wave for breathing room. Early voting data adds to the bullish picture: TargetSmart's analysis finds the Latino share of the early vote dramatically outpacing 2022 and 2024, with raw Latino vote totals exceeding presidential-year levels, driven in part by disapproval of Trump's economy and ICE actions. The main Democratic super PAC has meanwhile invested millions in the Kansas Senate race, where polls show a shockingly close contest that could deliver Democrats their first Senate seat there since 1932. But history and methodology suggest the projections may be overconfident — and inflated expectations could let the media frame a solid Democratic win as a mixed verdict.
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